Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 10.793291 12.374978 14.075437 16.035609 18.228750 20.602808 23.362948
2025-11-09 8.450095 10.593575 13.075281 16.144860 19.822216 24.067972 29.321505
2025-11-16 7.172449 9.530385 12.393945 16.097504 20.727264 26.287896 33.432016
2025-11-23 6.138686 8.605048 11.733702 15.946125 21.415171 28.215822 37.243555
2025-11-30 5.452819 8.006649 11.370127 16.056421 22.337765 30.377763 41.342999
2025-12-07 5.013195 7.674925 11.300081 16.506346 23.682420 33.101560 46.250644
2025-12-14 4.435187 7.077324 10.796862 16.299268 24.091751 34.570278 49.527454
2025-12-21 3.803212 6.329131 10.005544 15.607307 23.755942 34.976578 51.344454
2025-12-28 3.563272 6.141399 9.999028 16.021679 24.976415 37.546744 56.207164
2026-01-04 3.317133 5.916188 9.910981 16.295766 25.989918 39.849780 60.768116
2026-01-11 3.007684 5.556634 9.583655 16.175253 26.397396 41.283347 64.125095
2026-01-18 2.725447 5.212744 9.249521 16.011880 26.715061 42.578824 67.308335
2026-01-25 2.501770 4.951900 9.035097 16.031822 27.327646 44.357379 71.310412
2026-02-01 2.321605 4.749841 8.900706 16.168461 28.124151 46.440143 75.844328
2026-02-08 2.126994 4.500416 8.663140 16.111199 28.595112 48.027266 79.665068
2026-02-15 1.937678 4.240909 8.385746 15.963223 28.901352 49.358303 83.126315
2026-02-22 1.806510 4.079003 8.266067 16.072348 29.626465 51.361874 87.686328
2026-03-01 1.735198 4.027983 8.341408 16.523130 30.938938 54.341930 93.874909
2026-03-08 1.581439 3.793677 8.059270 16.315702 31.114378 55.484601 97.166094
2026-03-15 1.383078 3.444289 7.530968 15.623191 30.407810 55.144830 98.039964
2026-03-22 1.332162 3.406391 7.600258 16.037907 31.660145 58.087722 104.351450
2026-03-29 1.268889 3.334645 7.596589 16.312243 32.669938 60.653001 110.113628
2026-04-05 1.169443 3.170428 7.394143 16.191621 32.955988 61.994869 113.874038